Selection Sunday is right around the corner, but many men’s college basketball teams around the nation still have work to do to hear their name called inside that 68-team field.
That includes the 12 teams listed in the bubble of FOX Sports’ Michael DeCourcy’s latest NCAA Tournament bracket projection. The fate of those teams is being decided with every result. So we’re helping you track how they do as they claw for one of the final, coveted spots in the Big Dance.
Here’s a look at the results of each team on the NCAA Tournament bubble and what it means for their hopes:
March 11
SEC Tournament: Texas loses to Ole Miss 76-66
What it means: Texas entered Wednesday as the top team in DeCourcy’s “Last Four In”, but a Quad 2 loss to Ole Miss could drop the Longhorns a seed line if fellow bubble teams win. Texas has to hope for few bid-stealers, and mercy from the committee after dropping five of its last six.
Big Ten Tournament: Indiana gets destroyed by Northwestern, 74-61
Game recap: Nick Martinelli scored 28 points, Jake West added 18 and 15th-seeded Northwestern knocked off No. 10-seed Indiana 74-61 on the second day of the Big Ten Tournament on Wednesday.
The Wildcats (15-18) trailed 37-36 at halftime then held cold-shooting Indiana to 24 points in the second half. Northwestern now has a seven-game winning streak against the Hoosiers (18-14).
Martinelli made 5 of 7 shots early in the second half while Indiana was mired in a 2-for-11 shooting slump, leading to a 57-47 Northwestern lead with 10 minutes remaining.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
What it means: A Quad 2 loss to Northwestern greatly hurts Indiana’s March Madness hopes. The Hoosiers were the first team out of DeCourcy’s latest projection, and now can’t improve their resume anymore. They’ve also lost five of their last six games. So Indiana’s likely on the outside looking in as is, and vulnerable to bid-stealers.
Big 12 Tournament: UCF outlasts Cincinnati in OT, 66-65
What it means: Despite winning six of its final eight regular-season games, Cincinnati will likely miss the NCAA Tournament. The Bearcats entered Wednesday in DeCourcy’s “First Four Out” and couldn’t strengthen their case. UCF was a 10-seed in DeCourcy’s latest projection, and a Quad 1 win against Cincinnati will further secure the Golden Knights’ spot in the Big Dance. UCF can still earn an auto-bid by winning the Big 12 Tournament, but even without that, the Golden Knights should hear their name on Selection Sunday for the first time since 2019 when Tacko Fall took them dancing.
What’s next: UCF will play top-seeded Arizona in a quarterfinals game on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET.
SEC Tournament: Auburn beats Mississippi State, 79-61
Game recap: Kevin Overton scored 22 points, including 15 in the second half, as No. 12 seed Auburn rallied past No. 13 seed Mississippi State 77-61 on Wednesday in the first round of the Southeastern Conference Tournament.
The win helps Auburn’s NCAA Tournament chances under first-year coach Steven Pearl. The Tigers entered the SEC Tournament on the bubble after finishing as the top overall seed in the NCAA Tournament on their way to the Final Four a year ago.
Auburn (17-15) erased a 33-30 halftime deficit and dominated after the break, outscoring Mississippi State 47-28.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
What this result means: Auburn earned a Quad 3 win over Mississippi State, which doesn’t do much for its resume. A loss, however, would have been disastrous for a Tigers team that entered Wednesday in DeCourcy’s “First Four Out.” Auburn still has work to do to earn an at-large bid, but it could also rattle off four more victories to win the SEC Tournament and earn an auto-bid.
What’s next: An SEC Tournament second-round game against fifth-seeded Tennessee on Thursday at 3 p.m. ET.
ACC Tournament: SMU loses to Louisville, 62-58
Game recap: Ryan Conwell hit two key shots in the final 1:17 and finished with 16 points as No. 24 Louisville battled back to beat SMU 62-58 on Wednesday and advanced to the Atlantic Coast Conference tournament quarterfinals.
Adrian Wooley added 14 points and Isaac McKneely had 10 for the Cardinals (23-9), who’ll face Miami on Thursday.
Jarron Pierre Jr. had 17 points and Jaden Toombs added 13 points and nine rebounds for SMU (20-13), which led by six in the second half before Louisville stormed back behind three inside baskets from Vangelis Zougris.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
What this result means: SMU now awaits Selection Sunday with bated breath. A Quad 1 loss to Louisville shouldn’t be too detrimental, but the Mustangs’ short stay in the ACC Tournament leaves them open to bid-stealers. SMU was in DeCourcy’s “Last Four In” as of Wednesday, so it’s in good position, but vulnerable.
March 10
WCC Tournament: Gonzaga beats Santa Clara, 79-68
Santa Clara fell to Gonzaga in the WCC final on Tuesday. (Photo by Ethan Miller/Getty Images)
Game recap: Mario Saint-Supery scored 21 points, Tyon Grant-Foster had 20 and No. 12 Gonzaga went out a winner in its final West Coast Conference Tournament by beating Santa Clara 79-68 on Tuesday night in the championship game.
The Bulldogs (30-3) received the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament, though the only mystery was what seed they will get. This was their sixth WCC tournament title in seven years and 12th in the last 14.
Santa Clara (26-8) will wait until Sunday to see if it is in the 68-team field, but the WCC appears to be a three-bid league. Gonzaga, Santa Clara and No. 21 Saint Mary’s were in the top 38 of the NCAA’s NET rankings entering this game and in the top 35 in Kenpom.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
What this result means: Santa Clara, who entered the WCC Tournament in DeCourcy’s “Last Four In”, will have to rely on an at-large bid. But after beating Saint Mary’s on Monday, the Broncos should be safe.
ACC Tournament: Virginia Tech falls to Wake Forest, 95-89 in OT
Game recap: Myles Colvin scored 18 points and led seven Wake Forest teammates in double-figures scoring and the Demon Deacons went to overtime to beat Virginia Tech 95-89 Tuesday night in a first-round ACC Tournament contest.
The 13th-seeded Demon Deacons advance to play fifth-seeded Clemson on Wednesday. Virginia Tech entered the tournament as the 12th seed.
Sebastian Akins scored 14 points, Tre’Von Spillers and reserve Mekhi Mason 13 each, and Juke Harris and reserves Nate Calmese and Cooper Schwieger all scored 10 apiece.
What it means: Virginia Tech was in DeCourcy’s “First Four Out”, so this Quad 2 loss to Wake Forest will make it increasingly difficult for the Hokies to make the NCAA Tournament.
ACC Tournament: SMU beats Syracuse, 86-69
Game recap: Boopie Miller scored 25 points to lead five starters in double figures, Jaden Toombs and Samet Yigitoglu each had a double-double and No. 11 seed SMU beat 14th-seeded Syracuse 86-69 on Tuesday in the opening round of the ACC Tournament.
SMU (20-12), which had lost four ACC games in a row, advances to play 24th-ranked and sixth-seeded Louisville on Wednesday in the second round.
Toombs had a double-double in the first half with 14 points and 10 rebounds, and Miller added 11 points to help SMU hold a 39-38 lead at the break. Nate Kingz paced Syracuse with 17 points.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
What this result means: SMU was safe from DeCourcy’s bubble, but was listed as an 11-seed, so it remained in danger of missing the NCAA Tournament. A win against Syracuse in the first round of the ACC Tournament should help the Mustangs’ case, especially since Stanford, a fellow ACC bubble team, lost to Pittsburgh earlier in the day.
What’s next: SMU will face sixth-seeded Louisville on Wednesday at 2:30 p.m. ET.
Big 12 Tournament: Cincinnati beats Utah 73-66
Game recap: Jalen Celestine hit five 3-pointers and scored 19 points, including two clinching free throws with 29 seconds to go, and ninth-seeded Cincinnati held off No. 16 seed Utah 73-66 on Tuesday to advance to the second round of the Big 12 Tournament.
Moustapha Thiam added 14 points and 10 rebounds while Baba Miller had 11 points, 14 boards and six assists for the Bearcats (18-14), who also gave their NCAA tourney hopes a big boost by earning a date with No. 8 seed UCF on Wednesday.
The Bearcats have won seven of their last nine games, a streak that began with a 20-point victory over the Knights in early February and includes a rare win by a road team over Kansas inside Allen Fieldhouse a couple of weeks ago.
The Associated Press contributed to this report
What this result means: Cincinnati has now won seven of its last nine games to climb back onto the NCAA Tournament bubble after starting the season 11-12. The Bearcats, however, are still in the “Next Four Out” of DeCourcy’s latest projection, meaning they’ll have to stack as many wins in the conference tournament to earn an at-large bid. Each of Cincinnati’s games from here on out will likely be against Quad 1 opponents above the bubble, so if the Bearcats go on a run they could earn themselves a ticket to the Big Dance.
What’s next: Cincinnati will face eighth-seeded UCF on Wednesday at 3 p.m. ET.
March 9
WCC Tournament: Santa Clara beats Saint Mary’s 76-71
Game recap: Sash Gavalyugov scored 23 points including a back-breaking 3-pointer to lead Santa Clara to a 76-71 victory over No. 21 Saint Mary’s in the semifinals of the West Coast Conference Tournament on Monday night to take a big step toward making the Big Dance.
The Broncos (26-7) will play No. 12 Gonzaga (29-3) in the championship game on Tuesday night. The winner receives the conference’s automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament.
While the Bulldogs are safely in the tournament, Santa Clara was considered on the bubble. The Broncos entered this game No. 42 in the NCAA’s NET rankings and No. 37 in Kenpom.
Saint Mary’s (27-5) could take a hit in the tournament seeding, but the Gaels figure to get into the field of 68. They were No. 20 in the NET and No. 22 in KenPom.
This is the first time since 2021 that the WCC final hasn’t been between Gonzaga and Saint Mary’s.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.
What this result means: The Broncos advanced to the WCC Tournament final to play Gonzaga on Wednesday. A win in that game would clinch an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament. But Santa Clara should be safe, regardless, as it earned a Quad 1 neutral-site win when it beat Saint Mary’s in Tuesday’s semifinal. The Broncos were listed inside DeCoucy’s “Last Four In” as of Saturday, and this result could move them off the bubble entirely.
What’s next: Santa Clara will play Gonzaga in the WCC Tournament final on Wednesday.
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